Stats Don't Lie... Week 3

So, now that Divisional games are complete, I wanted to revisit the division evaluation.  Sure enough, through 3 weeks Divisional Scoring looks as follows:

Punt	Pass	Kick
1135.1	1001	1043.6

The numbers speak for themselves.  However, it’s difficult to evaluate individual team rankings amongst 12 teams across 3 divisions.  This doesn’t stop me from trying though. 

		Points For				Points Against
1	Makin' It Wayne	306.78		1	Texas Chainsaw Massaquoi	302.46
2	Ghetto Gangsta	298.18		2	Defenestrators	296.52
3	Floaters	294.94		3	The First Wives Club	284.26
4	Lehman Brothers	283.26		4	Makin' It Wayne	274.58
5	MissNColtsNCOS	272.68		5	WhenNRome	270.04
6	Texas Chainsaw Massaquoi	272.02		6	Rackin it Up	267.8
7	Defenestrators	258.12		7	DogPound	262.32
8	WhenNRome	256.08		8	Ghetto Gangsta	261.54
9	The First Wives Club	249.4		9	Maverick	260.46
10	Maverick	243.18		10	MissNColtsNCOS	240.34
11	DogPound	223.6		11	Lehman Brothers	230.54
12	Rackin it Up	221.46		12	Floaters	228.84

Giving each team a rank between 1 and 12 for both “points for” and “points against,” then averaging the totals should demonstrate who has performed well given their strength of schedule.   See the results below:

Rank	Team	Average
1	Makin' It Wayne	2.5
2	Texas Chainsaw Massaquoi	3.5
3	Defenestrators	4.5
4	Ghetto Gangsta	5
5	The First Wives Club	6
6	WhenNRome	6.5
7	Floaters	7.5
8	Lehman Brothers	7.5
9	MissNColtsNCOS	7.5
10	Rackin it Up	9
11	DogPound	9
12	Maverick	9.5

* Ties Broken by Sum of Points For and Against

So what does this illustrate?

1)      Ghetto Gangsta, Lehman Brothers, and Floaters lead their respective divisions, but have all played weak teams and lead the stat for “least points against” in their division.

2)      Despite being winless, Defenestrators and The First Wives Club have performed well against some difficult teams.  I expect good things to come from these two outside of league play.

3)      2009 Graduates of Anderson University’s Falls School of Business still dominate the top ranking teams of The Big Time Fantasy Football League.

J  What can I say?  Stats Don’t Lie…

Confucius Say...

Confucius Say...

'When man throw helmet...He throw opportunity to play out da window"

 

Lets talk about the other newsworthy New York team in the NFL.  How bout them Giants and more specifically Brandon Jacobs.  What happened to this guy?  Jacobs rushed for 100+ yard games 5 times, had over 15 TD's, and was a top RB in the 2008 season.  In 2009 he started the season great, but didn't produce like he did the year before.  In fact, ever since his 2nd season in the NFL Jacobs has progressivly decreased in his rushing attempts, yards, and tds.  In Jacob's 5th season in the NFL he is a whopping 250lb, 6'4, and 28 years old.  I mean the man is 6'4, which is a recipe for disaster on his knees because thats the only way to bring him down.  So it only makes Confucius sense that this man is not doing as well as he once did.

 

So Confucius say to stay away from Jacobs, which is a good thing for The Big Time league because no one has him.

 

Confucius Also Say...

 

"Man who name team with word Miss, will play like a Mrs. for the entire season."

Stats Don't Lie...#3

Stats Don't Lie

Ever wonder how accurate your team's projections are?  Through two weeks, here's an analysis:

	Points Projected			Percent Projected
	Too High	Too Low		Too High	Too Low
SODB	6.13			6.22%
MiW		3.5			3.66%
GG	20.37			17.74%
Def		7.34			9.50%
Miss	21.04			20.07%
Rack	26.33			25.64%
Mav	5.47			7.37%
When	17.88			17.37%
Float		14.74			20.27%
Wives		5.07			6.98%
Lehman	4.19			4.78%
Dog	2.73			3.61%

For all 12 teams, NFL.com projections are, on average, 6.8% too high.  Additionally, look the heck out for Floaters, as he's scoring, on average, 20% more points than he's projected for.  So, keep these over/under projections in mind next week when you think you're projected to beat your opponent, cause Stats Don't Lie...

Big Time Update - Week 2 Results

Weekly Standings

What Were You Thinking!?!

Nothing appeared particularly ridiculous this week (besides Andy Reed’s decision to start Vick…but we can talk about that next week) so I decided to venture outside the realm of the Big Time Fantasy Football League and select something we can all laugh at.


Weekly Wager

Based on the fact that I evidently made a terrible decision and gave two great friends $3 last week I’m going to go back to a safe place this week. I’m going to just copy someone else.  Pick the winner of Monday Night Football against the spread. Bets due before Monday Night Football starts. Post on league wall or email bigtimefantasyfootball@gmail.com


$3 – Monday Night Football - Green Bay (-3) vs Chicago (+3)

Game of the Week

There is only one choice this week. It’s the battle of the undefeateds! WhenNRome will battle Floaters in a Kick Division matchup for the ages. Key players to watch in this matchup are Drew Brees, Frank Gore, Wes Welker, and Ahmad Bradshaw. No one can say if Ghetto Gangsta will be able to take down his week 3 matchup but we know FOR SURE that there will be at least one undefeated team at the end of this week. Pick who you think will win in the GAME OF THE WEEK poll on the left hand side of the page.


Owner Profile

The owner profile of the week is yours truly, Dan Stichter. I work for Deloitte – Indianapolis as an external auditor (fancy word for accountant). While I would like to write that I am a fantasy football genius I cannot due a lack of independence and a great deal of professional skepticism (yes, those are accounting/auditing jokes. If you don’t get them that’s ok. It means you have better things to do with your life than accounting.) Instead I think I will classify myself as “fantasy football insane”. Checking your football page multiple times a day, constantly replying to endless “analysis” (smack talk) email trains, and waking up at 6am to check who you got off waivers should get me locked up for quite a while. On the weekends I enjoy being the second biggest Notre Dame fan in the house and on Sundays it can only be the Indianapolis Colts! If I end up with any money after this thing is over I will most likely spend it on some Colts gear for our soon to come baby girl or just save it so I can afford to play in the World Championship of Fantasy Football next year!

Video of the Week

Big Time Update - Week 1 Results

Wow what a big first week.  Looks like it’s going to be a great season!  Going into Monday night football every matchup was still up in the air.  Nothing like close fights down to the wire to get the blood flowing.  Unfortunately I haven’t thought of any exceptionally witty banter this week, so in an effort to avoid a Randy Moss-esk lack of respect rant for my weekly update, I’m just going to recap the week.

Weekly Results

Weekly Standings

What Were You Thinking!?!

The What Were You Thinking!?! weekly award goes to (drum roll…) Dog Pound!  While it was a really good try this week, you officially scored almost as many points with the 6 players on your bench as you did with the 9 players in your starting lineup.  For a wee bit of quick consolation see “Stats Don’t Lie…#2”.  But in the end there’s only one thing I can ask…What Were You Thinking!?!

Weekly Wager

$3 - Which group scores the most fantasy points? Top 10 RBs or Top 12 WRs

Entries are due before 1 o’clock kickoff and can be made on the league discussion board or by emailing bigtimefantasyfootball@gmail.com.  This doesn’t cost anything! It will just be added or subtracted from your final season winnings.

Game of the Week

Miss N Colts vs Lehman Bros – Coming off a very tough loss (less than 2 points!) Miss N Colts faces the top team in the division and a good friend in Lehman Bros.  A lot could ride on this game within the Pass division and sets up a great showdown for Week 12 when these former fellow RAs go toe-to-toe again.  Keep an eye on this one, should be high scorer!

Owner Profile – Brad Nelson – DogPound

Bradley “Brad” Nelson is owner and chief administrator of the Dog Pound (I don’t think he owns one of those obnoxious dog masks and I know for a fact he doesn’t enjoy pouring beer on people…so I think the “Dog Pound” name is more of a lose affiliation). He works as a Financial Accountant at Bright Automotive, Inc. in Anderson, IN. 

Brad is originally from Ohio but now lives in Noblesville with his new wife Lanette (co-owner of First Wives Club) and therefore is a big fan of THE Ohio State University.  He attempts to enjoy watching the Cleveland Browns on Sunday but once he’s had enough he can often be found on a basketball court (he won’t admit it but he’s pretty good).  When asked what he would do with his winnings he said he would invest a portion of it in Stichter Ventures and use the other portion to take his wife on a romantic date.

Stats Don't Lie...#2

In case you didn't notice yet, Division 1 had all four of the highest scoring teams in Week 1.  Is it just luck that all these 2009 AU Accounting/Management grads nailed their week one starters, or do they truly have deep teams that will be hard to beat should injuries occur?

If, for week one, the two highest scoring players on your roster had to be benched and replaced by players from your bench of the same position, the Week 1 finals would be as follows:

A Pryor Affair          79.72
Flacco is Wacko      75.86
Lehman Brothers      74.60
DogPound                67.32
Maverick                  66.36
Rackin it Up              66.16
WhenNRome            65.64
Floaters                     65.38
Ghetto Gangsta          57.48
Defenestrators           52.22
MissNColtsNCOS    50.88
The First Wives Club 47.16

(The only exception to the rule is this: if high scoring players didn't have bench replacements, the next highest scoring player w/ a replacement was selected.  This list is not meant to help show who has the best team, but rather try and quantify which teams have great depth.  The Bell Curve Distribution seems to confirm the test as legitimate.)

As you notice, the top two teams here (A Pryor Affair & Flacco is Wacko) are in Division 1.  However, the other two Division 1 (Ghetto Gangsta & Defenestrators) teams fell towards the bottom with little depth.  Alternatively, DogPound (who finished last in scoring this week) finds himself at the top of this depth chart as his two highest scoring players from Week 1 were on his bench.  We can revisit this depth statistic later this season using total points.  Until then you may consider updating your team's depth, because as you know, Stats Don't Lie...

Stats Don't Lie... #1

Contributed by team owner and participating columnist, Isaac Feeney ("Run Forsett Run")

Avg. draft position vs Actual position drafted in The Big Time:

Rip-off

Tony Romo: 26 vs 4
Antonio Gates: 39 vs. 20
Jermichael Finley: 53 vs. 33
Marion Barber: 92 vs. 34
Pierre Garcon: 74 vs. 42
49ers: 83 vs. 44
C.J Spiller: 86 vs. 47
Tim Hightowner: 140 vs. 58
Eli Manning: 89 vs. 59
Chris Chambers: 144 vs. 63
David Akers: 84 vs. 67
Dez Bryant: 106 vs. 71
Johnny Know: 110 vs. 72
Terelle Owens: 99 vs. 75
Arian Foster: 111 vs. 76
Jerome Harrison: 112 vs. 78
Devin Aromashodu: 128 vs. 91
Austin Collie: 144 vs. 92
Bernard Berrian: 139 vs. 100
Vince Young: 132 vs. 105
Roy Williams: 146 vs. 111
Chad Henne: 144 vs. 115
Kevin Walter: 150 vs. 122

Steal

Knowshon Moreno: 43 vs. 62
NY Jets: 58 vs. 74
Brett Favre: 49 vs. 80
Minnesota: 66 vs. 82
Jay Cutler: 64 vs. 84
Hakeem Nicks: 65 vs. 90
Ronnie Brown: 77 vs. 94
Owen Daniels: 72 vs. 96
Stephen Gostkowski: 77 vs. 104
Nate Kaeding: 81 vs. 108
Felix Jones: 84 vs. 109
Brandon Jacobs: 93 vs. 112
Steve Breaston: 108 vs. 124
Clinton Portis: 104 vs. 125
Dallas: 91 vs. 127
Montario Hardesty: 116 vs. 133
LaDainian Tomlinson: 118 vs. 138
Thomas Jones: 121 vs. 137
Chris Cooley: 151 vs. 121
Anthony Gonzalez: 148 vs. 177

Biggest Loser: Defenestrators - for picking up Marion Barber, Tim Hightower, and Chris Chambers - 58, 82, and 81 picks too early compared to most leagues

Biggest Winner: Run, Forsett, Run - for picking up Hakeem Nicks, the Dallas Cowboys Defense, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Chris Cooley - 25, 36, 20, and 30 picks after they were picked up in most leagues

I wasn't planning on having me be the "biggest winner," it just happened based on numbers. And while you may argue that some of those guys won't do anything this year, that's apparently not what the majority think, cause as we know, "Stats don't lie..."

Big Time Update - Draft Follow Up - Issue 1

It started as I sat outside on our deck this evening. At first I couldn’t put my finger on it, but then, immediately, I knew what I felt. It was fall. Individually the signs meant nothing; there was the subtle cool breeze, the smell of dry, dead grass (darn you record low rain fall), the sun quickly setting on the horizon…but then came the x factor over the breeze. The faint sound of a whistle and a 43 year old with a beer gut yelling obscenities at fifth graders in shoulder pads. IT’S FOOTBALL SEASON!

League Update

As you all know, the Big Time fantasy football season has begun. The draft is over and league owners are fretting over their teams, praying Bill Belichek does not decide to pray Tom Brady for all four quarters of a preseason game…again. No worries fantasy football fanatics, the scoring will commence very soon. In the meantime, welcome the first issue of the “Big Time Weekly”, the official blog of the Big Time fantasy football league.

The draft ended, as most drafts do, relatively uneventfully. Each teams followed it’s own strategy picking wanna-bees or has-beens depending the cereal they ate that morning. The real test will come when the season starts. So until then, we can only wait.

Weekly Standing/Winnings


Not available as no games have been played. Stay tuned for updates.

Stat of the Week

Coming Soon!

“What Were You Thinking!?!”

What Were You Thinking will be used each week to point out the most crazy, ridiculous, and dim-witted choice by a league owner. This week I have chosen the draft of the San Francisco 49ers defense in the 4th round of the draft by Floaters. Granted Floaters, you weren’t able to draft live BUT a defense?...the 49ers?...in the 4th rd?....What Were You Thinking!

Weekly Wager

Over/Under $3 – The First Wives Club wins 4.5 games.

(If you believe this team will win more than 4.5 games then bet OVER. If you believe this team will win less then 4.5 games bet UNDER. If you are correct you will win $3)


Explanation: The weekly wager is an additional chance for each league owner to add to their season winnings. Each week the league manager will propose a wager. Each owner can bet on either side of the wager. League manager will act as the bookie and payout any weekly wager winnings from his personal account. Losses will be deducted from each owner’s final payout and winnings will be added to each owner’s final payout.

Game of the Week

Ghetto Gangsta vs Defenstrators – In a match up of friends and former roommates Ghetto Gangsta and Defenstrators battle it out in week 1. Look for some excellent smack talk and even better competition. Remember that weeks 1-3 feature divisional matchups. This could play a huge role in the winner of each division, which is worth $10!

Owner Profile – Alexander Lavold - Defenstrators

Alexander “Alex” Lavold is the owner of the “Defenstrators”. Alex works as a Financial Advisor for Northwestern Mutual in Milwaulkee, WI. He attended Marquette University Catholic High School where he played offensive line and went on to receive a BA in Accounting from Anderson University. On Saturdays Alex cheers for Wisconsin or Texas, but on Sundays his loyalties lie 100% with the Green Bay Packers. When asked what he plans to do with his winnings he said “New TV or Honeymoon…this is going to cost a lot!” (Alex recently was engaged to Corey Hitchcock, also an AU graduate)

The Big Time - Fantasy Football Payouts

After much consternation and coordination the final payouts for The Big Time are listed below.


$2 - Regular Season Wins (the equivalent of wagering $1)
$10 - Division Winner

$5 - 4th Place
$10 - 3rd Place
$15 - 2nd place
$25 - 1st place

Other payouts:

$1 - High Point Non-Winner - Weekly
$1 - Lowest Margin of Defeat - Weekly

$3 - High point team wks 1-4
$3 - High point team wks 5-7
$3 - High point team wks 8-10
$3 - High point team wks 11-13
$3 - High point total QB - regular season
$3 - High point total RB - regular season
$3 - High point total WR - regular season
$3 - High point total TE - regular season
$3 - High point total Rookie - regular season
$3 - High point total DEF - regular season
$3 - High point total K - regular season

If I did the math right this equals $300. Perfect.